Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
06 Dec 2019 06 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (07 Dec 05:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Somalia)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 65 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 83 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      65 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 85000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 74 1.4 million No people Somalia, Ethiopia
        Green 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 83 160 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 74 300 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 74 190 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 74 580 thousand No people Somalia, Ethiopia
        Green 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 74 40 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 74 460 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 74 710 thousand No people Somalia, Ethiopia
        Green 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 74 330 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 74 150 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 74 290 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 65 110 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 65 370 thousand No people Somalia
        Green 14 06 Dec 2019 06:00 65 90 thousand No people Somalia

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 6.6, 56.1
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 6.8, 57.2
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7, 57.5
          GREEN
          		 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.1, 57.6
          GREEN
          		 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.2, 57.7
          GREEN
          		 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.4, 57.7
          GREEN
          		 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 8.2, 57.2
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 8.8, 56.8
          GREEN
          		 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.6, 56.2
          GREEN
          		 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.5, 55.9
          GREEN
          		 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.4, 54.9
          GREEN
          		 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 8.5, 54.2
          GREEN
          		 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 77000 people 8.1, 53.1 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 14 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 7.9, 53
          GREEN
          		 14 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 85000 people 7.2, 51 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 14 07 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 6.5, 49 Somalia
          GREEN
          		 14 07 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 5.6, 46.7 Somalia
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Somalia

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Nugaal Somalia
          Mudug Somalia

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ceel Dhahanaan, Somalia. This height is estimated for 07 Dec 2019 05:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (15 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 06 Dec 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          07 Dec 2019 05:00 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.2
          07 Dec 2019 06:00 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.2
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 06:00 Lakba Oman  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 12:00 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Aiesloho Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Bargaal Somalia  0.1
          05 Dec 2019 19:00 Mach Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 17:00 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 16:00 Sala Gon Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 18:00 Ascira Somalia  0.1
          07 Dec 2019 01:00 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 19:00 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.1
          06 Dec 2019 09:00 Cadayo Somalia  0.1